Both lines start at the same month and show cumulative growth from there. Both are
nominal, not adjusted for inflation. Inflation affects both equally, so the gap between
them is the meaningful number, not either line's height.
Total return. The S&P 500 line
defaults to total return, with dividends reinvested, reconstructed monthly from Shiller's
S&P Composite as (price + dividend / 12) / prior price. Shiller's dividend data ends
in June 2023; from July 2023 the index is chained to SPY's dividend-adjusted price.
Why not FRED for stocks. FRED's license
limits its S&P 500 series to a rolling ten years, and it carries no total-return series.
Shiller's price series matches FRED's where they overlap.
Wages. The default measure is hourly
compensation for the nonfarm business sector, which includes benefits. Quarterly values
are held flat across each quarter's months.
| Series | Source | Coverage |
| S&P 500, price and dividends S&P Composite, monthly average of daily closes, with dividends used to build total return | Robert Shiller, Yale | Dividends through Jun 2023 |
| S&P 500, total return after Jun 2023 SPY monthly close, dividend-adjusted, chained to the reconstructed index | SPY market data | Jul 2023 – Jul 2026 |
| Hourly compensation, all nonfarm business workers COMPNFB: Index, 2017 = 100; quarterly, seasonally adjusted | BLS via FRED | Jan 1947 – Apr 2026 |
| Average hourly earnings, production & nonsupervisory workers, total private AHETPI: Dollars per hour; monthly, seasonally adjusted | BLS via FRED | Jan 1964 – Jul 2026 |
| Average hourly earnings, manufacturing production workers CES3000000008: Dollars per hour; monthly, seasonally adjusted | BLS via FRED | Jan 1939 – Jul 2026 |
